HBM， Will collapse?

In the eyes of most people, the global frenzy over artificial intelligence sovereignty has led to competition for GPUs, which in turn has driven demand for HBM.

In a report released in March this year, renowned analysis firm Yole stated that since the emergence of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, generative artificial intelligence has flourished, driving an unprecedented 187% year-on-year increase in HBM bit shipments in 2023, and a surge of 193% in 2024.

It is expected that this growth momentum will continue. The growth rate of HBM far exceeds the overall DRAM market. Global HBM revenue is expected to grow from $17 billion in 2024 to $98 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 33%. ”Yole continued in the report. The latest revenue data from the three major storage giants shows that HBM is indeed on the track predicted by Yole.

As a new DRAM leader, driven by the surge in demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), SK Hynix expects its operating profit to reach nearly 9 trillion Korean won (6.6 billion US dollars) in the second quarter, and HBM sales are expected to account for over 50% of SK Hynix's total DRAM revenue this year, up from over 40% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Another HBM supplier, Micron, also achieved a new high in performance driven by HBM.

But recently, analysis agencies have issued a warning to HBM.

Goldman Sachs: HBM will experience a significant drop

According to a Goldman Sachs report cited by Taiwanese media, intensified competition and oversupply may lead to the first decline in HBM prices in 2026, posing a challenge to market leader SK Hynix.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that HBM prices may experience a double-digit decline by 2026. Goldman Sachs warns that intensified pressure, intensified competition, and a shift in pricing power to major clients (in which SK Hynix has significant risk exposure) may squeeze the company's profit margins.

In Goldman Sachs' view, the downward trend in HBM prices may be attributed to a significant increase in HBM chip supply from major manufacturers, which is expected to exceed demand and potentially push down the annual average selling price (ASP). Goldman Sachs stated that after years of tight supply, the HBM market is expected to experience weakness in 2026, which could lead to increased pricing pressure across the industry.

Goldman Sachs also emphasized that NVIDIA's next-generation GPU Rubin will not increase its HBM capacity like the B300. Both GPUs will adopt a capacity of 288GB - Rubin will use the 12Hi HBM4, and B300 will use the 12Hi HBM3E. This means that the demand growth for GPU driven HBM is limited, which is not good news for NVIDIA's main HBM supplier SK Hynix.

At the same time, Goldman Sachs also predicts that HBM's growth will significantly slow down - currently expected to increase by 25% year-on-year, compared to 45% previously. Goldman Sachs has revised its HBM Total Target Market (TAM) forecast, slightly increasing its 2025 forecast by 1% to $36 billion, but lowering its 2026 forecast by 13% to $45 billion (previously $51 billion).

Korean analysts warn that SK Hynix's market share may shrink when the next generation HBM4 is launched in 2025. In addition, the report points out that although the lifting of export restrictions on NVIDIA H20 chips by the United States to China should boost HBM demand and thus help SK Hynix, it may also provide a boost to its competitors.

The report also cites analysts' warnings that Samsung's HBM shipments may grow at an annual rate of 20% by 2026, which could directly put pressure on SK Hynix's profit margins.

According to them, Chinese companies will also become new players in this market, bringing uncertainty to the HBM market.

However, Jibang Consulting believes that with the continuous increase of HBM production capacity and the steady improvement of yield rates of various suppliers, the possibility of price reduction for mature products is unlikely. However, next year's focus will be on HBM4, which is still undergoing certification, so it is too early to determine the winner of the competition. Considering the release of the next generation HBM, TrendForce expects the overall average price of HBM to continue to rise.

UBS: HBM sees breakthrough

However, while Goldman Sachs is declining, UBS is highly optimistic about HBM in its latest report.

UBS analysts stated in a recent report that as the demand for computing from artificial intelligence continues to reshape the memory landscape, high bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to see a breakthrough year in 2026.

Analysts point out that our channel research continues to indicate that SK Hynix is likely to gain a stable market share in the HBM market by 2026, accounting for approximately 50% of the total capacity. ”This emphasizes their expectation that Hynix will continue to control the next generation of memory, even as contract negotiations and competitors' ambitions continue to escalate.

Despite some noise in the short-term memory market, particularly regarding negotiations between NVIDIA and high bandwidth memory suppliers such as SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron Technologies, as well as the possibility of a "price correction" as Samsung approaches HBM3E certification, UBS believes that the real story is brewing.

UBS reiterates. Hynix's leadership position in Nvidia will be maintained, and the recent design victories won by Google, AWS, and Microsoft's ASIC divisions indicate that Hynix will be locked in as the main or only HBM supplier in the industry. Even though competition is expected to intensify, it is unlikely to become a serious obstacle for Hynix before the end of 2026.

In terms of pricing, with the addition of more suppliers, HBM3E still has some room for negotiation, but Hynix expects only a "slight to moderate decrease" in prices in 2026 compared to 2025. More importantly, with the HBM4 premium obtained through its first mover advantage, Hynix expects its HBM4 price to be about 40% higher than the upcoming generation product - even after a 50% increase in cost per bit.

Overall, UBS predicts that the price per bit of hybrid HBM will increase by 18.5% year-on-year in 2026, driving HBM revenue to an expected $32.7 billion and accounting for over 70% of SK Hynix's operating profit.

However, the development of HBM is not without risks. The delay in Samsung's capacity expansion may intensify competitive pressure this year, and the significant increase in HBM4 production costs may also lead to more intense price negotiations in the future. Investors are also closely monitoring capital expenditures, as Hynix's expansion plans will depend on the progress of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell Ultra and Rubin product cycles.

Despite recent uncertainties, UBS reiterates that the outlook for HBM in 2026 remains strong and expects Hynix to continue to dominate.

HBM， How exactly is it?

From the previous reports, we can see that the long short battle of HBM is unprecedentedly fierce. Therefore, let's take a look at the production capacity and technological layout of these three HBM giants to provide reference for everyone's HBM trend.

According to analysts, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to ensure a monthly HBM production capacity of approximately 150000 wafers by the end of 2025.

1. Samsung Electronics: Initially expected to produce 170000 wafers per month by the end of 2025, but reduced to 150000 wafers per month. Therefore, the shipment forecast has been lowered from 80 billion Gb to 60 billion Gb.

2. SK Hynix: Initially expected to produce 65000 wafers per month by the end of 2025, but raised to 150000 wafers per month. Additional expansion is planned for M15 x in 2026.

3. Micron expects to expand its production capacity to 25000 pieces per month by the end of 2024, 65000 pieces per month by the end of 2025, and 90000 pieces per month by the end of 2026.

The report further points out that the market expansion of HBM3e and HBM4 is the biggest variable.

After 2025, driven by Blackwell (NVDA) and TPU (AVGO), the demand for high-end HBM3e and above is expected to increase. According to the report,. The demand for Blackwell series in 2025 is 5.3 million units, and the demand for TPU v6 is 2.2 million units. Ultimately, the main reason for the increase in demand is capacity growth:

1) The DRAM capacity in Blackwell has increased by 2 times (H200 to B300) to 2.4 times (H100 to B200),

2) The DRAM capacity in TPU v6 has doubled compared to v5p.

With the arrival of HBM4, ASIC customization will also stimulate the demand for HBM.

According to industry insiders, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron are expanding their supply of HBM products to ASIC design companies. Last month, Micron announced at its earnings conference that in addition to Nvidia and AMD, ASIC platform companies are also the four major customers for HBM's bulk shipments. According to Gao Yongmin, a researcher at DAOL Investment Securities, "This reflects the confidence brought by the growth in ASIC customer demand. ”

With the surge in demand for AI model specific custom semiconductors operated by companies such as Amazon, Meta, and Google, the ASIC market has also experienced rapid growth. This is because general AI semiconductor products produced by companies such as Nvidia and AMD are expensive, and their performance to power ratio is not sufficient to run AI models. The industry expects ASIC shipments to exceed Nvidia's AI semiconductor supply next year. JPMorgan predicts that the global AI ASIC market will reach approximately $30 billion (about KRW 41 trillion) this year, with an annual growth rate of over 30%.

With the rapid development of ASIC companies, memory semiconductor companies producing HBM are also expanding their supply. It is reported that SK Hynix, the market leader in HBM, is supplying HBM in bulk to companies such as Amazon, Google, and Broadcom's ASIC chips. According to reports, Samsung Electronics is also supplying the fifth generation HBM (HBM3E) to companies such as Broadcom.

An industry insider pointed out that the supply of ASIC still accounts for about 10% of the entire HBM market, but in fact, the supply that used to be mainly concentrated in Nvidia and AMD is rapidly diversifying. ”

LS Securities researcher Cui Yonghao said, "Starting from next year, with the continuous growth of ASIC's market share, HBM customers will present a diversified prospect. ”

So, in your opinion, what would be the trend of HBM?