Although the spot price of DRAM has slightly fallen recently, the surge in price of storage chips has already triggered demand suppression. Ultimately, why did MediaTek and Qualcomm cut tens of millions of smartphone chip production capacity? It is reported that two manufacturers are reducing the production of mobile chips, which are the main focus of mid to low end smartphones, due to the continuously rising prices of storage chips, which have begun to suppress terminal demand.
The smartphone industry is facing a dual impact: on the one hand, the price of storage chips has skyrocketed in the past year - the core cause being that under the AI boom, a large amount of global DRAM production capacity has been squeezed by HBM high bandwidth memory; On the other hand, the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and Iran has had a profound impact on the global logistics supply chain. For example, the situation in Iran has brought about an unexpected chain reaction: a global shortage of helium gas. Helium is a key material used in semiconductor manufacturing for low-temperature refrigeration and high-purity cleaning. The northern gas field in Qatar is a core source of helium gas globally, but due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, related supplies are currently unable to circulate normally. In terms of the storage market, the spot price of DDR5 has started to fall from its high point, and the mainstream view is pointing the finger at Google's TurboQuant technology.
Industry concerns: This algorithm, which can compress KV cache without loss and greatly improve inference efficiency, will directly weaken the subsequent memory procurement demand as major manufacturers collectively expand production. However, industry analysts still believe that a drop in spot prices does not mean an immediate reversal of the market. Daishin Securities found through channel research that a leading cloud vendor recently purchased DDR4 servers at a transaction price even higher than HBM3e; The fact that old memory can still sell at sky high prices is enough to indicate that the demand driven by AI is still strong. Returning to the core issue: In recent months, the skyrocketing storage prices have clearly suppressed demand, especially impacting the price sensitive domestic smartphone market. Therefore, both MediaTek and Qualcomm have lowered the production pace of 4nm mobile phone chips, which are widely used in mid to low end models. The scale of this round of production reduction is about 20000 to 30000 wafers, equivalent to 15 to 20 million mobile processors. MediaTek's 4nm product line covers the Dimensity 7200, 7300, 8200, 8450, 9000, 9300, 9400 and other series; Qualcomm 4nm models include Snapdragon 4 Gen2, 4s Gen2, Snapdragon 7s Gen2, Snapdragon 8 Gen3, and more.
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